This is todays average wind map.(Not including thunderstorm winds)Just thought I would point out that the winds above 7,000 feet in that area of the slight risk.This explains why tornadoes will not be likely.Here are the NWS maps for today.As you can see,hail is a low threat due to the winds I went over.
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| Overall threat |
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| tornado threat(At this point it is higher than (usual) |
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| wind threat |
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| hail threat All of this threat might have a northward expansion if the jet steam wind increase just by a little. |
As you can see,every model except the GGEM ensembles show a trend of a negative NAO.Here is the PNA model trends:
The PNA worries me because only the GFS shows a positive PNA and only for a short time.Here is my snowfall map....THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY/OZARKS... ...SYNOPSIS... AN AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONUS INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A DEEP/EXTENSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER EAST-CENTRAL CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION...TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN CONUS. ...MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY/OZARKS... THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE EAST-CENTRAL CANADA LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION/MIDWEST ON THURSDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MAKE A STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH A SLOWER/MORE SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE OZARKS AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THAT SAID...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EFFECTIVELY AUGMENTED BY EARLY DAY PRECIPITATION/POSSIBLE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES VICINITY. ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SUCH AS LOWER MI...THESE FACTORS /ALONG WITH A MORE MODEST MOISTURE CONTENT/ PUT INTO QUESTION THE DEGREE OF AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION. REGARDLESS...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT TSTMS WILL INCREASE/INTENSIFY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE /EFFECTIVE/ COLD FRONT WITHIN A RELATIVELY MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. IT IS PROBABLE THAT THE STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE OZARKS VICINITY INTO DOWNSTATE IL AND PERHAPS INDIANA...WITH AS MUCH AS 1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL TEND TO LAG THE COLD FRONT EXCEPT FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT EVEN REMOVED FROM THE STRONGER FORCING/VERTICAL SHEAR...STRONGER/MORE CERTAIN DESTABILIZATION FARTHER SOUTHWEST INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY/OZARKS WILL ACCOUNT FOR ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL. WITH MULTICELLS AND PERHAPS SOME SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE...DAMAGING WINDS AND BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS...ESPECIALLY FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-EVENING THURSDAY. TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES/MID-SOUTH...BUT WITH A GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT BY THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.
Departure from normal of water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean on December 26, 2011 (left), and February 27, 2012 (right), show a rapid eroding of La Niña and the potential start of an El Niño pattern.Tendencies for a "typical" El Niño summer which, if seen, probably won't happen until 2013.Another warm/dry winter is possible.More tomorrow.
| Moderate Risk for severe storms today Monday (2012-04-09 CDT) ... |
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THUNDERSTORMS...SOME MAY PRODUCE: HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED GOLF BALLS. DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL. FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA TODAY BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH IT. VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW THIS MORNING. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL RESULT BY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA WITH THE COLD FRONT AND AN ATTENDANT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE POTENTIALLY TRIGGERING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE PRIMARY AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR THOUGH SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR NORTH AS THE WISCONSIN BORDER. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT STORMS MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL CLOSER TO EVENING WHICH MAY PUSH THE THREAT FURTHER SOUTH. DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL BE RATHER WEAK SO STORMS MAY PULSE UP AND DOWN IN INTENSITY WHILE ORGANIZING INTO CLUSTERS. PROVIDED STORMS DO DEVELOP...HAIL...TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND POSSIBLY GOLF BALLS...AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS.
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| Overall threat(slight,moderate high) |
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| Tornado threat |
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| Hail threat |
.THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EWD INTO E TX/SRN AR AND MUCH OF LA... ...SYNOPSIS.... MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE SRN EXTENT OF THE WRN U.S. TROUGH BECOMING CUT-OFF FROM THE NRN STREAM BY THE START OF DAY 1. THE CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD TODAY ACROSS NM...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A RATHER STRONG DOWNSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDING NWD FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...HEIGHTS WILL RISE ACROSS THE SERN STATES AS A TROUGH LOCATED ALONG THE MIDDLE/NRN ATLANTIC COAST MOVES EWD. A WEAK MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION...CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY NWD INLAND FROM THE MID-UPPER TX COAST...SHOULD TRACK NEWD TODAY THROUGH E TX/ARKLATEX AND LOWER MS VALLEY REACHING THE OZARKS AND NRN MS BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE NRN EXTENT OF THE WRN TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING EWD THROUGH THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ENEWD THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS IT PHASES WITH A SEPARATE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. MODELS DIFFER WITH THE EFFECT THE SRN PORTION OF THESE PHASED TROUGHS HAS ACROSS NRN MN...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF/00Z GFS AGREE THAT 40-60 METER HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THAT REGION MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE E/SEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AND SWD WHERE IT WILL MERGE WITH A NE-SW ORIENTED DRY LINE ACROSS CENTRAL KS THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRY LINE WILL THEN EXTEND SWD FROM A TRIPLE POINT OVER SWRN-SOUTH CENTRAL KS THROUGH WRN OK TO CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON. THE WRN EXTENT OF A WARM FRONT...INITIALLY LOCATED OVER NRN MO...IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NWD AND REACH ERN IA/NWRN IL BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS REACHING ERN GA BY 12Z TUESDAY. ...CENTRAL TX/WRN AND CENTRAL OK/CENTRAL AND ERN KS... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE BASE OF THE WRN TROUGH OVER SWRN AZ PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE THROUGH THE SERN-ERN PERIPHERY OF THE PARENT CLOSED LOW TODAY ACROSS SW-W TX INTO WRN OK AND POSSIBLY SWRN KS BY 03/00Z. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...DPVA ATTENDANT TO THE MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND DIFFLUENT MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALL EXPECTED ACROSS THE DRY LINE DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON SUGGEST TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY FROM CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL TX NWD THROUGH WRN OK TO SOUTH CENTRAL KS. THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD EXTEND FROM NWRN OK/ADJACENT KS NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT NEWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT/DRY LINE MERGER INTO CENTRAL KS...WITH MUCH OF THE KS TSTM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE MORE ANAFRONTAL-TYPE DEVELOPMENT. SURFACE HEATING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR COMBINED WITH VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /EXCEEDING 8 C PER KM/...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY WITHIN THE TX/OK/KS PORTION OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS S TO N CENTRAL TX WITH SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRY LINE. THIS WILL PROVE FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS PRODUCING HAIL...SOME VERY LARGE /EXCEEDING 2 INCH DIAMETER/...AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL DECREASE WITH NWD EXTENT...WITH A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR PULSE-TYPE STORMS INTO KS...THE PRESENCE OF STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT VERY LARGE HAIL WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL. THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO EXTEND NWD THROUGH WRN OK TO THE TRIPLE POINT IN SWRN-S CENTRAL KS. ...E TX/MUCH OF LA/SRN AR... THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION INTO THE AFTERNOON. FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE NEWD MOVING MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 KT SUGGESTS MULTICELLS WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORM MODE WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. ...UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES TO NRN IL/IND... A FEW STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE ELEVATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE START OF DAY 1 FROM ERN SD INTO NRN MN WITHIN A STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME. WEAK-MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND 25-30 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUPPORT THIS MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT. ELEVATED CONVECTION/EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM NERN SD INTO NRN MN THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WEAKER INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. A GREATER COVERAGE OF TSTMS...AGAIN MAINLY ELEVATED...IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SRN MN/POTENTIALLY NRN IA...NEAR AND N OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO NWRN IA FROM NEB TODAY. IF SURFACE BASED STORMS CAN DEVELOP NEAR THE LOW IN IA...THEN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED NWD...AS MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT A GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. OTHERWISE...A STRENGTHENING/VEERING LLJ FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ELEVATED TSTMS DEVELOPING AND SPREADING ESEWD ACROSS THESE AREAS. ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES TO NRN IL/IND MONDAY NIGHT...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT PRIMARILY ISOLATED HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ...SRN APPALACHIANS/SC/ERN GA... THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON WITH TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND S OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS REGION. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY PULSE-TYPE STORMS WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR SOME HAIL.
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0358 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN IA/SOUTHERN WI/NORTHWEST IL/NORTHEAST MO CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 272058Z - 272300Z MONITORING FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT...WHICH COULD INITIALLY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION INTO THE 23Z-02Z TIME FRAME. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE A GRADUAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION TOWARD THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AT MID AFTERNOON WITHIN A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED CORRIDOR FROM WESTERN WI TO SOUTH-CENTRAL IA/NORTHWEST MO. MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S F...OTHERWISE CONTINUES TO STEADILY INCREASE WITH NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NEAR/AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS MODEST AS WINDS AT/JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE HAVE CONTINUED TO VEER PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS/REGIONAL DERIVED WIND DATA. HOWEVER...A LOW-AMPLITUDE EASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX CURRENTLY OVER SD/SOUTHWEST MN PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MAY PROVIDE AN IMPETUS FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS INHIBITION OTHERWISE CONTINUES TO ERODE WITHIN THE MODESTLY MOIST NEAR-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE DETAILS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...AN ASSORTMENT OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INCLUDING A NUMBER OF 15Z SREF MEMBERS IMPLY THAT SUCH DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MORE PROBABLE INTO THE 23Z-02Z TIME FRAME ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN IA/FAR NORTHWEST IL AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTHERN MO...ALTHOUGH A GRADUAL DEEPENING OF THE CUMULUS FIELD HAS BEEN NOTED AS FAR NORTHEAST AS SOUTHWEST WI AT MID-AFTERNOON. IF/WHERE DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DOES OCCUR INTO THIS EVENING...STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR /45-50 KT OR GREATER/ WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED STORMS INCLUDING INITIAL MODE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL/PERHAPS A TORNADO...WITH DAMAGING WINDS A POSSIBILITY AS WELL. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.
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| Thunderstorm wind possibility |
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| Hail possibility |
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL MO INTO IL AND INDIANA... ...SYNOPSIS... A COMPACT UPPER LOW WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AS IT TURNS EWD ACROSS MN AND TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERTICALLY STACKED WITH A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE MN ARROWHEAD AT THAT TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL SWWD INTO ERN IA AND NRN MO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A NARROW PLUME OF MID TO UPPER 50S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL VEER TO WLY IN THE MID LEVELS WITH AMPLE SHEAR FOR A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT NEAR THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER SRN KS...LIFTING NWD AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT FROM NWRN OK INTO CNTRL AND WRN KS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. TO THE S..NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN WARM CONDITIONS OVER WRN TX...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO CNTRL TX POSSIBLY PLAYING A ROLE IN ISOLATED SW TX THUNDERSTORMS. MEANWHILE ALONG THE W COAST...COOLING ALOFT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH A COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ...CNTRL MO INTO IL AND INDIANA... THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN CAPPED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL GRADUALLY STEEPEN AND LITTLE INHIBITION IS EXPECTED FROM NRN MO INTO WRN AND NRN IL BY 00Z. WITH SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS ON SRN FRINGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM NEAR THE FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES AND STEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL...BUT DAMAGING WINDS COULD OCCUR IF STORMS BECOME ELONGATED OR ORGANIZED INTO WAVES ALONG THE FRONT. A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER CNTRL IL WITH INITIAL ACTIVITY WHILE IT IS CELLULAR EARLY IN THE CYCLE WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL RELATIVELY WARM. ...W AND SW TX... A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL EXIST ACROSS WRN TX BY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG HEATING ALONG AND W OF A DRYLINE. MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP AND DESPITE WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW...A FEW SEVERE STORMS SHOULD FORM CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...MOST LIKELY WITH MULTICELL CLUSTERS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIURNAL IN NATURE...AND MOST LIKELY TO LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING ACROSS SWRN TX AS A SELY LOW LEVEL JET MAINTAINS WARM/MOIST ADVECTION OVER SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TERRAIN. ...CNTRL/WRN KS OVERNIGHT... THE TRAILING END OF THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND SHIFT NWD AFTER 00Z FROM NWRN OK INTO WRN KS. WARM ADVECTION COUPLED WITH A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONDITIONALLY FAVOR LARGE HAIL WITH A FEW STRONGER CORES. HOWEVER...OVERALL WEAK FORCING SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0343
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0916 AM CDT SAT MAR 24 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...SERN GA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 241416Z - 241515Z
SEMI-DISCRETE TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN FL PANHANDLE INTO S-CNTRL GA
SHOULD INTENSIFY AND POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AS
ACTIVITY MOVES EWD TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE PROBABILITY OF A
WW ISSUANCE IS 80 PERCENT AND SLIGHT RISK WILL BE EXPANDED SWD IN
THE 1630Z D1 OUTLOOK.
TSTMS DEVELOPING WITHIN A PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BAND COINCIDENT
WITH THE AXIS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY...CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE NEAR
1500 J/KG AS SAMPLED BY THE 12Z TLH RAOB...SHOULD INTENSIFY AS
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION INCREASES. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE WITH SEVERAL TSTM CLUSTERS LIKELY
DEVELOPING EWD INTO THIS AFTERNOON. VWP DATA FROM KVAX DEPICTS
VEERING OF THE LOWER-LEVEL WIND PROFILE THAT IS SUPPORTING 0-1 KM
SRH OF 100-150 M2/S2. WITH EFFECTIVE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40
KT...EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES APPEAR PROBABLE...POTENTIALLY
YIELDING ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND A
BRIEF TORNADO.
..GRAMS.. 03/24/2012
ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...
LAT...LON 31388327 32028298 32488230 32528151 32398114 32208093
30738154 29928140 29458161 29338240 29408282 29678343
30148363 30808351 31388327
