Severe weather possible today.

Tornado probability

Thunderstorm wind possibility

Hail possibility

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL MO INTO IL AND
   INDIANA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A COMPACT UPPER LOW WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AS IT TURNS EWD ACROSS
   MN AND TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERTICALLY
   STACKED WITH A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE MN ARROWHEAD AT THAT TIME. A
   COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL SWWD INTO ERN IA AND NRN MO DURING THE LATE
   AFTERNOON...WITH A NARROW PLUME OF MID TO UPPER 50S F SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A
   SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL VEER TO WLY IN THE MID LEVELS WITH AMPLE
   SHEAR FOR A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT NEAR THE FRONT.
   
   THIS FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER SRN KS...LIFTING NWD AS
   A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT FROM NWRN OK INTO CNTRL AND WRN KS WITH A
   CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
   
   TO THE S..NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
   WARM CONDITIONS OVER WRN TX...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVING
   ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO CNTRL TX POSSIBLY PLAYING A ROLE
   IN ISOLATED SW TX THUNDERSTORMS.
   
   MEANWHILE ALONG THE W COAST...COOLING ALOFT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND
   LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH A COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
   LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
   
   ...CNTRL MO INTO IL AND INDIANA...
   THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN CAPPED FOR MUCH
   OF THE DAY...BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL GRADUALLY STEEPEN AND
   LITTLE INHIBITION IS EXPECTED FROM NRN MO INTO WRN AND NRN IL BY
   00Z. WITH SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS ON SRN FRINGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
   CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM NEAR THE
   FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND
   PROFILES AND STEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROVE
   FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL...BUT DAMAGING
   WINDS COULD OCCUR IF STORMS BECOME ELONGATED OR ORGANIZED INTO WAVES
   ALONG THE FRONT. A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER CNTRL IL WITH
   INITIAL ACTIVITY WHILE IT IS CELLULAR EARLY IN THE CYCLE WHILE
   BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL RELATIVELY WARM.  
   
   ...W AND SW TX...
   A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL EXIST ACROSS WRN TX BY AFTERNOON
   WITH STRONG HEATING ALONG AND W OF A DRYLINE. MODERATE INSTABILITY
   SHOULD DEVELOP AND DESPITE WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW...A FEW SEVERE
   STORMS SHOULD FORM CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...MOST LIKELY WITH
   MULTICELL CLUSTERS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIURNAL IN NATURE...AND
   MOST LIKELY TO LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING ACROSS SWRN TX AS A SELY
   LOW LEVEL JET MAINTAINS WARM/MOIST ADVECTION OVER SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
   TERRAIN.
   
   ...CNTRL/WRN KS OVERNIGHT...
   THE TRAILING END OF THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND SHIFT NWD
   AFTER 00Z FROM NWRN OK INTO WRN KS. WARM ADVECTION COUPLED WITH A
   STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONDITIONALLY FAVOR LARGE HAIL
   WITH A FEW STRONGER CORES. HOWEVER...OVERALL WEAK FORCING SHOULD
   LIMIT THE COVERAGE.