N.W.S MAKES LONG RANGE SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST!

...DISCUSSION...
   THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A
   POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH...NOW OVER THE ERN PACIFIC...EJECTING NEWD
   ACROSS WY AND INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS ON MON/D4. BOTH MODELS ALSO
   DEPICT A DEEP SURFACE LOW...WITH 1-2 MB/HR PRESSURE FALLS PERSISTING
   ALL DAY OVER SD AND WRN NEB NEAR THE SURFACE LOW. WITH THE COMPACT
   NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...A TIGHT PRESSURE FALL/RISE COUPLET IS
   EXPECTED...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT
   INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT FROM WRN SD INTO N
   CNTRL NEB.
   
   THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TAKE MORE OF AN EWD DIRECTION ON
   TUE/D5 AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. WITH STRONG VORTICITY
   ALOFT...BANDS OF STORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
   VORTICITY MAX. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THE SURFACE MOIST AXIS WILL
   BECOME NARROW...AND STRONG MIXING MAY OCCUR AS WELL. THE RESULT
   COULD BE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE STORMS. AT THIS
   TIME...IT IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO INTRODUCE SUCH A SMALL AREA.
   
   AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...A COLD FRONT
   WILL TRAIL SWWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...WITH A
   CONTINUED THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH SOME LOCALIZED SEVERE
   MAY OCCUR IN THE FORM OF WIND AND HAIL...NO LARGE SCALE AREAS APPEAR
   WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.