OFFICIAL 2012-2013 WINTER FORECAST

THE OFFICIAL 2012-2013

WINTER

FORECAST

To start off with,the eastern part of the country will have above normal snowfall.Let me show you why.

As you can see,every model except the GGEM ensembles show a trend of a negative NAO.Here is the PNA model trends:The PNA worries me because only the GFS shows a positive PNA and only for a short time.Here is my snowfall map.
GREEN:SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
RED:ABOVE AVERAGE
WHITE:BELOW AVERAGE
BLUE:AVERAGE

Great Lakes:They will have above normal snowfall because of a stronger NW winds and more of the Greenland block occurring.The main snow threat will be Lake Effect.
Plains:This area will have a blocking low in the area.The most likely time for snowfall will be December.
Northeast:Normal snowfall will fall but the Jet Stream will not be as common.The most snowfall will be by big lakes.
Northwest:Wet snow will be the main threat do to slightly above normal temps.
Southeast:Ice storms more than normal.Up to 1.5 inches by end of winter.