MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0343
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0916 AM CDT SAT MAR 24 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...SERN GA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 241416Z - 241515Z
SEMI-DISCRETE TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN FL PANHANDLE INTO S-CNTRL GA
SHOULD INTENSIFY AND POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AS
ACTIVITY MOVES EWD TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE PROBABILITY OF A
WW ISSUANCE IS 80 PERCENT AND SLIGHT RISK WILL BE EXPANDED SWD IN
THE 1630Z D1 OUTLOOK.
TSTMS DEVELOPING WITHIN A PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BAND COINCIDENT
WITH THE AXIS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY...CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE NEAR
1500 J/KG AS SAMPLED BY THE 12Z TLH RAOB...SHOULD INTENSIFY AS
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION INCREASES. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE WITH SEVERAL TSTM CLUSTERS LIKELY
DEVELOPING EWD INTO THIS AFTERNOON. VWP DATA FROM KVAX DEPICTS
VEERING OF THE LOWER-LEVEL WIND PROFILE THAT IS SUPPORTING 0-1 KM
SRH OF 100-150 M2/S2. WITH EFFECTIVE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40
KT...EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES APPEAR PROBABLE...POTENTIALLY
YIELDING ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND A
BRIEF TORNADO.
..GRAMS.. 03/24/2012
ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...
LAT...LON 31388327 32028298 32488230 32528151 32398114 32208093
30738154 29928140 29458161 29338240 29408282 29678343
30148363 30808351 31388327
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Saturday, March 24, 2012
Watch likely with no severe weather risk.N.W.S will most likely put a risk area in Florida too.
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