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Saturday, March 24, 2012

Watch likely with no severe weather risk.N.W.S will most likely put a risk area in Florida too.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0343
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0916 AM CDT SAT MAR 24 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...SERN GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 241416Z - 241515Z
   
   SEMI-DISCRETE TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN FL PANHANDLE INTO S-CNTRL GA
   SHOULD INTENSIFY AND POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AS
   ACTIVITY MOVES EWD TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE PROBABILITY OF A
   WW ISSUANCE IS 80 PERCENT AND SLIGHT RISK WILL BE EXPANDED SWD IN
   THE 1630Z D1 OUTLOOK.
   
   TSTMS DEVELOPING WITHIN A PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BAND COINCIDENT
   WITH THE AXIS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY...CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE NEAR
   1500 J/KG AS SAMPLED BY THE 12Z TLH RAOB...SHOULD INTENSIFY AS
   DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION INCREASES. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY
   CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE WITH SEVERAL TSTM CLUSTERS LIKELY
   DEVELOPING EWD INTO THIS AFTERNOON. VWP DATA FROM KVAX DEPICTS
   VEERING OF THE LOWER-LEVEL WIND PROFILE THAT IS SUPPORTING 0-1 KM
   SRH OF 100-150 M2/S2. WITH EFFECTIVE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40
   KT...EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES APPEAR PROBABLE...POTENTIALLY
   YIELDING ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND A
   BRIEF TORNADO.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 03/24/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...
   
   LAT...LON   31388327 32028298 32488230 32528151 32398114 32208093
               30738154 29928140 29458161 29338240 29408282 29678343
               30148363 30808351 31388327 
   

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