Potential for Severe thunderstorm or tornado watches.

Potential for Severe thunderstorm or tornado watches that could spread east with the storm.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0367

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0358 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN IA/SOUTHERN WI/NORTHWEST IL/NORTHEAST MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 272058Z - 272300Z
   
   MONITORING FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT...WHICH COULD INITIALLY
   OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION INTO THE 23Z-02Z TIME FRAME. A
   WATCH MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.
   
   A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE A GRADUAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION
   TOWARD THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AT MID AFTERNOON WITHIN A
   NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED CORRIDOR FROM WESTERN WI TO
   SOUTH-CENTRAL IA/NORTHWEST MO. MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH
   SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S F...OTHERWISE CONTINUES TO
   STEADILY INCREASE WITH NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT IMMEDIATELY AHEAD
   OF THE FRONT. NEAR/AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
   REMAINS MODEST AS WINDS AT/JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE HAVE CONTINUED TO
   VEER PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS/REGIONAL DERIVED WIND DATA.
   HOWEVER...A LOW-AMPLITUDE EASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX
   CURRENTLY OVER SD/SOUTHWEST MN PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MAY PROVIDE
   AN IMPETUS FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS INHIBITION OTHERWISE CONTINUES TO ERODE
   WITHIN THE MODESTLY MOIST NEAR-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR.
   
   WHILE CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE DETAILS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
   HIGH...AN ASSORTMENT OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INCLUDING A NUMBER OF 15Z
   SREF MEMBERS IMPLY THAT SUCH DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MORE PROBABLE INTO
   THE 23Z-02Z TIME FRAME ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN IA/FAR
   NORTHWEST IL AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTHERN MO...ALTHOUGH A GRADUAL
   DEEPENING OF THE CUMULUS FIELD HAS BEEN NOTED AS FAR NORTHEAST AS
   SOUTHWEST WI AT MID-AFTERNOON. IF/WHERE DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
   DOES OCCUR INTO THIS EVENING...STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR /45-50 KT OR
   GREATER/ WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED STORMS INCLUDING INITIAL
   MODE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL/PERHAPS A TORNADO...WITH
   DAMAGING WINDS A POSSIBILITY AS WELL. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

Severe weather possible today.

Tornado probability

Thunderstorm wind possibility

Hail possibility

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL MO INTO IL AND
   INDIANA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A COMPACT UPPER LOW WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AS IT TURNS EWD ACROSS
   MN AND TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERTICALLY
   STACKED WITH A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE MN ARROWHEAD AT THAT TIME. A
   COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL SWWD INTO ERN IA AND NRN MO DURING THE LATE
   AFTERNOON...WITH A NARROW PLUME OF MID TO UPPER 50S F SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A
   SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL VEER TO WLY IN THE MID LEVELS WITH AMPLE
   SHEAR FOR A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT NEAR THE FRONT.
   
   THIS FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER SRN KS...LIFTING NWD AS
   A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT FROM NWRN OK INTO CNTRL AND WRN KS WITH A
   CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
   
   TO THE S..NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
   WARM CONDITIONS OVER WRN TX...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVING
   ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO CNTRL TX POSSIBLY PLAYING A ROLE
   IN ISOLATED SW TX THUNDERSTORMS.
   
   MEANWHILE ALONG THE W COAST...COOLING ALOFT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND
   LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH A COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
   LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
   
   ...CNTRL MO INTO IL AND INDIANA...
   THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN CAPPED FOR MUCH
   OF THE DAY...BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL GRADUALLY STEEPEN AND
   LITTLE INHIBITION IS EXPECTED FROM NRN MO INTO WRN AND NRN IL BY
   00Z. WITH SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS ON SRN FRINGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
   CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM NEAR THE
   FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND
   PROFILES AND STEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROVE
   FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL...BUT DAMAGING
   WINDS COULD OCCUR IF STORMS BECOME ELONGATED OR ORGANIZED INTO WAVES
   ALONG THE FRONT. A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER CNTRL IL WITH
   INITIAL ACTIVITY WHILE IT IS CELLULAR EARLY IN THE CYCLE WHILE
   BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL RELATIVELY WARM.  
   
   ...W AND SW TX...
   A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL EXIST ACROSS WRN TX BY AFTERNOON
   WITH STRONG HEATING ALONG AND W OF A DRYLINE. MODERATE INSTABILITY
   SHOULD DEVELOP AND DESPITE WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW...A FEW SEVERE
   STORMS SHOULD FORM CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...MOST LIKELY WITH
   MULTICELL CLUSTERS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIURNAL IN NATURE...AND
   MOST LIKELY TO LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING ACROSS SWRN TX AS A SELY
   LOW LEVEL JET MAINTAINS WARM/MOIST ADVECTION OVER SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
   TERRAIN.
   
   ...CNTRL/WRN KS OVERNIGHT...
   THE TRAILING END OF THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND SHIFT NWD
   AFTER 00Z FROM NWRN OK INTO WRN KS. WARM ADVECTION COUPLED WITH A
   STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONDITIONALLY FAVOR LARGE HAIL
   WITH A FEW STRONGER CORES. HOWEVER...OVERALL WEAK FORCING SHOULD
   LIMIT THE COVERAGE.
   

Pictures from Accuweather that show how much hail accumulated in yesterdays storm.

Up the 6'' of hail fell in Vagina and South Carolina.

Watch likely with no severe weather risk.N.W.S will most likely put a risk area in Florida too.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0343
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0916 AM CDT SAT MAR 24 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...SERN GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 241416Z - 241515Z
   
   SEMI-DISCRETE TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN FL PANHANDLE INTO S-CNTRL GA
   SHOULD INTENSIFY AND POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AS
   ACTIVITY MOVES EWD TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE PROBABILITY OF A
   WW ISSUANCE IS 80 PERCENT AND SLIGHT RISK WILL BE EXPANDED SWD IN
   THE 1630Z D1 OUTLOOK.
   
   TSTMS DEVELOPING WITHIN A PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BAND COINCIDENT
   WITH THE AXIS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY...CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE NEAR
   1500 J/KG AS SAMPLED BY THE 12Z TLH RAOB...SHOULD INTENSIFY AS
   DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION INCREASES. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY
   CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE WITH SEVERAL TSTM CLUSTERS LIKELY
   DEVELOPING EWD INTO THIS AFTERNOON. VWP DATA FROM KVAX DEPICTS
   VEERING OF THE LOWER-LEVEL WIND PROFILE THAT IS SUPPORTING 0-1 KM
   SRH OF 100-150 M2/S2. WITH EFFECTIVE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40
   KT...EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES APPEAR PROBABLE...POTENTIALLY
   YIELDING ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND A
   BRIEF TORNADO.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 03/24/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...
   
   LAT...LON   31388327 32028298 32488230 32528151 32398114 32208093
               30738154 29928140 29458161 29338240 29408282 29678343
               30148363 30808351 31388327 
   

PICS OF A STORM MOVING INTO MY AREA.

N.W.S MAKES LONG RANGE SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST!

...DISCUSSION...
   THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A
   POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH...NOW OVER THE ERN PACIFIC...EJECTING NEWD
   ACROSS WY AND INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS ON MON/D4. BOTH MODELS ALSO
   DEPICT A DEEP SURFACE LOW...WITH 1-2 MB/HR PRESSURE FALLS PERSISTING
   ALL DAY OVER SD AND WRN NEB NEAR THE SURFACE LOW. WITH THE COMPACT
   NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...A TIGHT PRESSURE FALL/RISE COUPLET IS
   EXPECTED...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT
   INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT FROM WRN SD INTO N
   CNTRL NEB.
   
   THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TAKE MORE OF AN EWD DIRECTION ON
   TUE/D5 AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. WITH STRONG VORTICITY
   ALOFT...BANDS OF STORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
   VORTICITY MAX. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THE SURFACE MOIST AXIS WILL
   BECOME NARROW...AND STRONG MIXING MAY OCCUR AS WELL. THE RESULT
   COULD BE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE STORMS. AT THIS
   TIME...IT IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO INTRODUCE SUCH A SMALL AREA.
   
   AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...A COLD FRONT
   WILL TRAIL SWWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...WITH A
   CONTINUED THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH SOME LOCALIZED SEVERE
   MAY OCCUR IN THE FORM OF WIND AND HAIL...NO LARGE SCALE AREAS APPEAR
   WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
   

Tornado Warning. Take cover now!

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
322 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

TXC435-192045-
/O.CON.KSJT.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-120319T2045Z/
SUTTON TX-
322 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN SUTTON COUNTY...

AT 321 PM CDT... THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THE STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF US-277 AND RANCH ROAD 189...OR 19 MILES
SOUTH OF SONORA...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

  STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
  DANGEROUS TORNADIC WINDS.
  LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE. HAIL
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

  WITH POSSIBLE STORM IMPACTS...
  OVERTURNED VEHICLES...
  DAMAGE TO TREES...SOME MAY BE UPROOTED...
  DAMAGE TO HOMES...MAY DESTROY MANUFACTURED HOMES...
  DENTED VEHICLES...
  MODERATE ROOF DAMAGE...
  MAY BREAK WINDOWS ON VEHICLES AND HOMES...
  MAY INJURE PEOPLE...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK LEFT UNPROTECTED...
  DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS...
  LIGHT OBJECTS BLOWN AROUND...

THE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
SOUTHWESTERN SUTTON COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT MONDAY EVENING
FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3029 10091 3036 10092 3041 10088 3049 10062
      3029 10036
TIME...MOT...LOC 2022Z 249DEG 29KT 3030 10069

$$

18

Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
426 AM CDT MON MAR 12 2012

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-
130930-
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE ILLINOIS-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-
DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-
IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE INDIANA-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
426 AM CDT MON MAR 12 2012 /526 AM EDT MON MAR 12 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  THUNDERSTORMS...SOME COULD PRODUCE
    HAIL AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR GREATER.
    DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
    ISOLATED TORNADOES.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  FROM NORTHEAST ILLINOIS EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA...MAINLY
  NORTH OF THE KANKAKEE RIVER...LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
  EVENING.

  DISCUSSION:

  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
  AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. IF
  THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND STRONG WINDS
  ALOFT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PRODUCING A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
  STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THIS
WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO
WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO

$$

---

U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 16, 2007

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WEBSITES I LIKE - YouTube

SKI FORECAST FOR BITTERSWEET

On Tuesday the temperatures will be in the upper 40's.Still the base will be 30-40''.They make their own snow but you should be carful because it may be slush in spots.

UPDATE - YouTube

here you go mark

HERE YOU GO MARK - YouTube

Models show cold weather in the East starting in Mid-Ohio and continuing east.Warm weather will be in station over the rest of the country.With the strong jet stream being in Central Ohio and upper level winds being strong,this could cause this severe weather event.The models are showing this mid to late next week.

Most models are showing this storm but not all of them are showing a serial squall.Due to this I am lowering my tornado threats to a 5% which is a pretty good chance.There is a possibility that the N.W.S will issue a 30% risk but at this time the N.W.S is not noticing some of the things I am.

SURPRISE!!!

SURPRISE!! - YouTube

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eh1Bn6rM2xk&feature=youtu.be

EDIT:SEVERE STORMS AND A SURPRISE

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UPDATE #3

UPDATE #3 - YouTube

SEVERE WEATHER UPDATE #2

SEVERE WEATHER UPDATE #2 - YouTube

MARCH 8 POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER

WEATHER ROPORT FOR MARCH 8 2012 - YouTube

STORM UPDATE

 More than 30 people are reported dead with the most damage in southern Indiana.If you are in a slight/moderate risk and or a watch please watch the weather for tornadoes into the night.

THIS YEAR IS GOING TO BE A WILD RIDE

I am expecting more Moderate and High severe thunderstorm/tornado chances issued by the N.W.S this year than the past two years combined.We have already had about the same amount of Moderate chances we had last year at the end of the year which was record setting.The amazing thing is that it isn't even spring yet.We had two High chances last year.We have already had one this year.Hail the size of baseballs if not softballs are possible.This could easily shatter a windshield,damage a house,and break yard furniture.Don't even get me started on extreme straight-line wind.Houses will be damaged even swept away if trees don't fall on them first.Property damage will be likely and insurance companies will be busy.Squall line tornado rates will go up.Squall lines rarely produce tornadoes.This week there was an          
EF-4 tornado out of a squall line!This is almost historic.It will be a very dangerous year.Spotters and reporters will be needed.

WILL IT BE AN ACTIVE SPRING?

I t looks to be that spring is starting up fast with 3 moderate risks in 2 weeks.Another storm will plow through the Midwest tomorrow with the chance possibly being a HIGH which is very rarely used along with moderate.The fact that we have already gotten many tornadoes this year including an EF-4 is outrageous.Everybody should watch for severe weather this spring.It seems like it will be a bad spring.We have already had about 4 or 5 moderate risks.