2012-2013 winter forecast!!

The 2012-13 winter forecast has finally come.First,I would like to say the east and northeast will have the most snowfall.The Great Lakes will have at least one major snowstorm that will likely be caused do to Lake effect snow.Lake effect snow will be a big part of the winter in the great lakes and that will be caused by a positive NAO,faster more common NW wind,west based El Nino which helps snow in the east,greenland block which helps major snowstorms,and a positive PNA which was the key role in the Chicago blizzard.This is why I think the great lakes will have a major Lake effect snow blizzard this year.Moving on to the rest of the country,it will be mild in the northwest with a few slush snowstorms,possible snow drought in the rocky mountains,above normal snow in the midwest,average snow in the pacific mountains average temps and wet.

Neil Armstrong, the first man to step on the moon died today at age 82 from cardiovascular complications.

Winter forecast postponed until noon tomorrow.

Winter forecast comes out at noon!!!

The official timing for the 2012-13 winter weather forecast will be August 25 (this Saturday) at 12:00pm.This is the NOT OFFICIAL WINTER WEATHER FORECAST.THE REAL ONE WILL BE POSTED WITH THE NEWEST UPDATES ON NOVEMBER 1.I know it is a very late winter forecast but I want to have the newest weather data for the official one.The one on Saturday might be just as long and detailed as the November 1 forecast except it is further out.

Winter forecast is almost done.Just going to finish it with my friend Mark tomorrow.Just a reminder it comes out the 25.Sorry I haven't been posting as much as I said I would but I have been working on the winter forecast.

Are there any towns around the world you wants to know a forecast for. Just comment.

Moderate risk for rip currents on Indiana and Michigan shorelines.Wave 4-9 feet and winds 15-20kn.Temperature 72 degrees at the lake front. Partly sunny skies with lake effect rain showers in Michigan.

I am going to start doing a forecast for towns around the globe.If you know someone around the globe or is traveling around the globe, every Saturday morning I will post something that says to start commenting and you comment any city around the globe and I will get you its forecast for the week ahead.You can also comment a city in the US if you live there.

Very close footage of Tuscaloosa tornado.

Tuscaloosa Tornado 4.27.11 -- ORIGINAL AUDIO - YouTube

With the changes, I will be, along with my normal types of posting like forecast also be doing things like facts about weather and climate so here are some I found1. The fastest speed a falling raindrop can hit you is 18mph.

2. During a hurricane, 90% of the people who die end up dying from drowning.

3. The coldest temperature ever recorded was a negative 126.9 degrees fahrenheit in Vostok Station, Antarctica.

4. Between evaporation and falling as precipitation, a droplet of water may travel thousands of miles.

5. The typical lifetime of a small cumulus cloud is between 10 to 15 minutes.

6. A corn field of one acre gives of 4,000 gallons off water per day in evaporation.

7. A molecule of water will stay in Earth’s atmosphere for an average duration of 10-12 days.

8. Snowflakes falling at 2-4 mph can take about 1 hr to reach the ground.

9. For each minute of the day, 1 billion tons of rain falls on the Earth.

10. At any given time, on average there are about 1800 thunderstorms occurring on earth with 100 lightning strikes per second.

11. Lightning bolts can travel 60 miles.

12. A lightning bolt travels at about 14,000mph and brings 300,000 volts of electricity to the ground.

13. The air located around a lightning bolt is heated to around 30,000 degrees Celsius. This is 5 times hotter than the surface of the sun.

14. The chances of being struck by lightning is about one in three million.

15. The largest hailstone ever recorded in the United States was nearly the size of a soccer ball. It was a 7-inch wide chunk of ice.

16. Lightning sets about 10,000 forest fires every year in the United States.

17. In one day a hurricane can release enough energy to supply all of the nation’s electrical needs for about six months.

18. The highest temperature ever recorded in the United States was 134 degrees F at Greenland Ranch in Death Valley, California.

19. In 1899, it was so cold that the Mississippi River froze over its entire length.

20. The United States uses an estimated 10 million tons of salt each year to melt ice on the roads.

21. A cubic mile of ordinary fog contains less than a gallon of water.

22. An inch of rain water is equivalent to 15 inches of dry, powdery snow.

23. Every year in the US, 625 people are struck by lightning.

24. The average width of a tornado’s funnel averages about 100 to 200 yards but may be as wide as a mile.

A lot of wind and hail reports in southern ILL/IN and northern MO.Almost all of them are more than 65 mph and 1.25 inches.I am going to start devoting a lot more of my time to this blog so  a lot of changes are coming including a new format,new features or more updated features and a tone more posts.Have a nice evening!!

Severe weather moving close to Illinois/Indiana border early this morning.If any warning/watches are issued I will post.There will be an overlook of the damage at the end of the day.

Here is the NWS severe weather outlook.

 ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/MIDDLE MS
   RIVER VALLEY/OZARKS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONUS INTO
   THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A DEEP/EXTENSIVE
   LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER EAST-CENTRAL CANADA AND THE GREAT
   LAKES REGION...TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
   WESTERN/SOUTHERN CONUS.
   
   ...MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY/OZARKS...
   THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE EAST-CENTRAL CANADA LONGWAVE TROUGH IS
   EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
   THE GREAT LAKES REGION/MIDWEST ON THURSDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
   WILL MAKE A STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   REGION...WITH A SLOWER/MORE SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT
   ACROSS THE OZARKS AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THAT SAID...IT SEEMS LIKELY
   THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EFFECTIVELY AUGMENTED BY EARLY DAY
   PRECIPITATION/POSSIBLE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
   UPPER MS VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES VICINITY. ESPECIALLY FOR
   AREAS SUCH AS LOWER MI...THESE FACTORS /ALONG WITH A MORE MODEST
   MOISTURE CONTENT/ PUT INTO QUESTION THE DEGREE OF AFTERNOON
   DESTABILIZATION.
   
   REGARDLESS...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT TSTMS WILL INCREASE/INTENSIFY
   THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE /EFFECTIVE/ COLD FRONT WITHIN A
   RELATIVELY MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. IT IS PROBABLE
   THAT THE STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
   ACROSS THE OZARKS VICINITY INTO DOWNSTATE IL AND PERHAPS
   INDIANA...WITH AS MUCH AS 1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE POSSIBLE. THE
   STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL TEND TO LAG THE
   COLD FRONT EXCEPT FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT EVEN REMOVED FROM
   THE STRONGER FORCING/VERTICAL SHEAR...STRONGER/MORE CERTAIN
   DESTABILIZATION FARTHER SOUTHWEST INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY/OZARKS
   WILL ACCOUNT FOR ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL. WITH
   MULTICELLS AND PERHAPS SOME SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE...DAMAGING WINDS AND
   BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS...ESPECIALLY FROM
   MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-EVENING THURSDAY. TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
   SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/LOWER
   GREAT LAKES/MID-SOUTH...BUT WITH A GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SEVERE
   THREAT BY THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.
   

There is nothing to change about my last report but the risk area extends from southern Michigan to northern Arkansas.

A cold front will plow into the great lakes and Ohio valley on Thursday afternoon triggering thunderstorms to develop in Iowa and move east. These storms have a possibility to turn severe causing large hail,severe wind,and possibly spawning a few tornados in the great lakes region.More updates come tomorrow.

I was just thinking about how I will be in school this tornado season and thinking our school dose not provide enough safety during tornadoes.Our RE office has a window so you can see in it and they put 3rd graders under it.Our hallway is made out of white brick-like material that would quickly turn into a wind tunnel and that glass would be shattered right on the kids.

Check out todays rain forecast.

4.0 km WRF-NMM Precipitation Graphics

These regions are going to be the hardest hit this winter.I have discovered that a La Nina is a possible case through early January.Central/northern/northeast Illinois,northern/northwest indiana maybe central.The regions I just mentioned were mainly on the list because of one storm that looks to be on the 21-23 of December.I think this because at that time a positive PNA will be possible which was the key role in the Chicago blizzard.Another factor is a 50/50 chance of a La Nina which would help a lot.It is still far out  so it is hard to tell.The northeast is another region that will be affected be a major snowstorm.

30% risk of severe weather tomorrow I am issuing a severe T-storm watch.HIGH RISK INCLUDES: 2''plus hail,winds over 65 kn.I will not be here tomorrow be prepared for severe weather tomorrow,and be safe.

I am not doing an update until tomorrow.No severe wx watches and no storm safety due to extremely low confidence.

update#2 - YouTube

Movie on 2012 08 01 at 10 31 - YouTube

Movie on 2012 08 01 at 10 18 - YouTube

tornado threat update.

tornado fo sat. sun. - YouTube